Research
How theses fail.
Volaxi publishes the analytical thinking behind the Underwriting Challenge: the recurring ways investment arguments break, and the evidence that would have shown it earlier.
Flagship public case
NVIDIA: What Has to Go Right for the AI Thesis to Work?
Read the complete public Underwriting Challenge in its original report format.
The questions we return to
Each framework exists because a thesis failed on it somewhere.
Full methodology →Incremental ROIC
Is the marginal dollar still earning its cost of capital?
Duration Mismatch
Does the valuation need a longer runway than visibility supports?
Bottleneck Migration
Where does the constraint move next?
Incremental Dollar
Where does the next dollar of growth come from?
Revenue Quality
How durable and cash-convertible is the revenue?
Capital Allocation
Does deployment match stated priorities?
Management Incentives
Are incentives aligned with the required outcome?
Analytical library
Quality of earnings
How reported earnings diverge from the earnings a buyer can underwrite.
Read →Software underwriting
Phantom ARR, cohort and NRR masking, and capitalised R&D inflating EBITDA.
Read →Valuation
What a valuation range is actually asserting, and where it quietly breaks.
Read →Working capital
Why the peg is where value moves after price is agreed.
Read →Diligence
The evidence a thesis needs before it can be called verified.
Read →Full library
Guides, checklists, calculators and model templates.
Read →Investment Thesis Kill Sheet
The questions Volaxi asks before underwriting any thesis, written so you can run them yourself.
Submit a thesis for qualification and the kill sheet is sent with the reply.
Request the kill sheet →